The safe cycling visibility dilemma: Christmas Tree vs Squirrel Ninja

Globally there are many safe cycling campaigns determined to educate both motorists and cyclists about how to share the road and be considerate. These groups also lobby for safer cycle paths in urban areas  and arrange days to hand out bright safety bibs; bright lights; and helmets to the poorly equipped cyclist on the road.

In South Africa we have seen a recent upswing in the cases of early morning bike jackings that occur in the dark. The paradox we then face is that in all our efforts to make ourselves highly visible to motorists, we also make ourselves easy targets for bike jackers. Considering the fact that, on a dark night, a flickering candle can be seen from 48km away, my 1200 lumen headlight gives any potential bike jacker on main road enough time to wake; make a cup of coffee; take a hit of tik; and then dress in his dark clothes and head out to find a suitable hiding place where he can launch his attack on me. I've given him ample time to see my approach.
This gear is great for evaporating puddles; blinding wildlife; and alerting bike jackers from 11km away
Now lets take the perspective of the cyclist. Your beaming ray of light aimed dead ahead to let you see and be seen also has a physiological effect: your focus on that illuminated area can cause a bleaching of the retinal pigment - so your ability to effectively use your peripheral vision is strongly impaired. When the bike jacker leaps from his little bush or whatever he was hiding behind, the chances of you having spotted him earlier are slim as your eyes sharpness and ability to distinguish his camouflage would be dulled by the fact that you had been staring at a bright white illuminated patch in your immediate field of vision. Double blow!

So - heres the dilemma. Do I dress up as a Christmas tree so that I am a visible beacon to vehicles - including the international space station - as well as every potential bike jacker down the road; or do I fight fire with fire and make myself one with the night? I'm talking about absolute Black Ops: black kit; no lights; smooth tyres; I become a riding squirrel ninja and blend seamlessly into the dark folds of the morning shadows....

The Ninja Squirrel Way: Clever twists and turns combined with stealth and weaponry make this the perfect mindset for avoiding bike-jackers in the dark
Statistically I'm screwed either way though: bike jackings and being hit by a car seem to enjoy a similar frequency. All we really try and do is to mitigate both possibilities - mainly through our visibility strategy.

But this is the crux: Muggers come from the front on foot; cars approach from behind at speed.

So this is my logic - and its a good hybrid model: I say you should regulate your lights in the front but look like a Guy Fawkes party from the back. And this is how you deploy this game-changing tactic:

When you leave early in the mornings, know your hotspots (for me its along Main road from Tokai to Lakeside. The skabengas lie in wait all along that section). Here is where you ride like a black panther; a ninja squirrel. Quiet; fast; and using clever streets and alleyways. If you're only waking up and have two headlamps with enough lumen power to melt tar, you're like a moose wearing lumo pink pajamas in hunting season. BUT if you're flitting along like a frantic squirrel in a black ninja suit under the cover of night - you're practically invisible. And you only need to be seen from the back by cars because you're in the same lane as them. So its a combination of Ninja Squirrel in the front; Christmas tree from the back.
This is what you should aspire to look like when going through crime hotspots. Can you see the cyclist? There - in the middle of the road..? Look closer... Can't see him? Exactly!! Ninja Squirrel mode...
This way you have successfully mitigated against the direction and type of threat: muggers from the front (you're unseen with little warning time of your arrival); cars approaching from the rear see you from miles away - and you're moving too fast for a mugger to chase you from behind (on foot anyway!).

And for the benefit of cars approaching from behind - this is what you should look like to them.
So plan against your known risks. Oh,  NOTE: Please don't ride with your front headlight on strobe-flashing mode! It blinds EVERYONE who looks into it and is probably going to give you an epileptic fit! The cars are behind you, remember?

Ride safe...